Probability in Writing and Gaming

A friend of mine was asking when I would write about Probability. There's an inside joke here that's just too complicated to explain, so just take my word for it, and say it's funny. Anyways, I was wondering how I could relate probability to writing, because in gaming, well, you roll dice or something, and that's all there is to it, basically. For example, on a six sided die, you have equal chances of rolling any number from 1 through 6, so your probability of rolling any one of those numbers is 1/6. In writing, it's a little harder to figure out.

First let's choose an appropriate definition for probability, as taken from Dictionary.com.

Probability: a strong likelihood or chance of something.

So I was thinking about how my own stories unfold, and how some kind of something happens in them, and I realized that writing is all about expressing probable or less probable events, that happen in any given setting (well, for me anyway). This is what is traditionally called the Plot. The plot is the driving force behind any good story. You need something to happen, and that something, or that probable, or not so probable event, must be interesting, and in my opinion, drastic, while obeying the laws of probability. For example, let's say the hero in your story needs to do something really spectacular. If the chances are that your character will fail, then let him fail - don't play God unless that is the entire basis of your story. Your writing will be that much richer for it, and your readers will believe in it. I also think that your characters will be that much easier to relate to. I love reading about how a character progresses through both successes and failures; how they figure out how to do things on their own. I prefer seeing a character go through a realistic series of wins and losses, just how we do in real life, and how they eventually come out on top. It's just so satisfying to me when I can say I get what they're doing.

In any case, I urge you to think about the probability of events the next time you write - I know I will.